This skill should be used when analyzing recent market-moving news events and their impact on equity markets and commodities. Use this skill when the user requests analysis of major financial news from the past 10 days, wants to understand market reactions to monetary policy decisions (FOMC, ECB, BOJ), needs assessment of geopolitical events' impact on commodities, or requires comprehensive review of earnings announcements from mega-cap stocks. The skill automatically collects news using WebSearch/WebFetch tools and produces impact-ranked analysis reports. All analysis thinking and output are conducted in English.
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This skill should be used when analyzing recent market-moving news events and their impact on equity markets and commodities. Use this skill when the user requests analysis of major financial news from the past 10 days, wants to understand market reactions to monetary policy decisions (FOMC, ECB, BOJ), needs assessment of geopolitical events' impact on commodities, or requires comprehensive review of earnings announcements from mega-cap stocks. The skill automatically collects news using WebSearch/WebFetch tools and produces impact-ranked analysis reports. All analysis thinking and output are conducted in English.
This skill enables comprehensive analysis of market-moving news events from the past 10 days, focusing on their impact on US equity markets and commodities. The skill automatically collects news from trusted sources using WebSearch and WebFetch tools, evaluates market impact magnitude, analyzes actual market reactions, and produces structured English reports ranked by market impact significance.
Version history
Use this skill when:
Example user requests:
Follow this structured 6-step workflow when analyzing market news:
Objective: Gather comprehensive news from the past 10 days covering major market-moving events.
Search Strategy:
Execute parallel WebSearch queries covering different news categories:
Monetary Policy:
Inflation/Economic Data:
Mega-Cap Earnings:
Geopolitical Events:
Commodity Markets:
Corporate News:
Recommended News Sources (Priority Order):
Search Execution:
Filtering Criteria:
Think in English throughout collection process. Document each significant news item with:
Objective: Access domain expertise to inform impact assessment.
Load relevant reference files based on collected news types:
Always Load:
references/market_event_patterns.md - Comprehensive patterns for all major event typesreferences/trusted_news_sources.md - Source credibility assessmentConditionally Load (Based on News Collected):
If monetary policy news found:
If geopolitical events found:
references/geopolitical_commodity_correlations.mdIf mega-cap earnings found:
references/corporate_news_impact.mdIf commodity news found:
references/geopolitical_commodity_correlations.mdKnowledge Integration: Compare collected news against historical patterns to:
Objective: Rank each news event by market impact significance.
Impact Assessment Framework:
For each news item, evaluate across three dimensions:
1. Asset Price Impact (Primary Factor):
Measure actual or estimated price movements:
Equity Markets:
Index-level: S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones
Sector-level: Specific sector ETFs
Stock-specific: Individual mega-caps
Commodity Markets:
Oil (WTI/Brent):
Gold:
Base Metals (Copper, etc.):
Bond Markets:
Currency Markets:
2. Breadth of Impact (Multiplier):
Assess how many markets/sectors affected:
Systemic (3x multiplier): Multiple asset classes, global markets
Cross-Asset (2x multiplier): Equities + commodities, or equities + bonds
Sector-Wide (1.5x multiplier): Entire sector or related sectors
Stock-Specific (1x multiplier): Single company (unless mega-cap with index impact)
3. Forward-Looking Significance (Modifier):
Consider future implications:
Regime Change (+50%): Fundamental market structure shift
Trend Confirmation (+25%): Reinforces existing trajectory
Isolated Event (0%): One-off with limited forward signal
Contrary Signal (-25%): Contradicts prevailing narrative
Impact Score Calculation:
Impact Score = (Price Impact Score × Breadth Multiplier) + Forward-Looking Modifier
Price Impact Score:
- Severe: 10 points
- Major: 7 points
- Moderate: 4 points
- Minor: 2 points
- Negligible: 1 point
Example Calculations:
FOMC 75bps Rate Hike (hawkish tone):
NVIDIA Earnings Beat:
Geopolitical Flare-up (Middle East):
Single Stock Earnings (Non-Mega-Cap):
Ranking: After scoring all news items, rank from highest to lowest impact score. This determines report ordering.
Objective: Analyze how markets actually responded to each event.
For each significant news item (Impact Score >5), conduct detailed reaction analysis:
Immediate Reaction (Intraday):
Multi-Asset Response:
Equities:
Fixed Income:
Commodities:
Currencies:
Derivatives:
Pattern Comparison:
Compare observed reaction against expected pattern from knowledge base:
Consistent: Reaction matched historical pattern
Amplified: Reaction exceeded typical pattern
Dampened: Reaction less than historical pattern
Inverse: Reaction opposite of historical pattern
Anomaly Identification:
Flag reactions that deviate significantly from patterns:
Sentiment Indicators:
Objective: Distinguish direct impacts from coincidental timing.
Multi-Event Analysis:
When multiple significant events occurred in the 10-day period, assess interactions:
Reinforcing Events:
Offsetting Events:
Sequential Events:
Coincidental Timing:
Geopolitical-Commodity Correlations:
For geopolitical events, specifically analyze commodity market reactions using geopolitical_commodity_correlations.md:
Energy:
Precious Metals:
Industrial Metals:
Agriculture:
Transmission Mechanisms:
Trace how news impacts flowed through markets:
Direct Channel:
Indirect Channels:
Sentiment Channel:
Feedback Loops:
Objective: Create structured English Markdown report ranked by market impact.
Report Structure:
# Market News Analysis Report - [Date Range]
## Executive Summary
[3-4 sentences covering:]
- Period analyzed (specific dates)
- Number of significant events identified
- Dominant market theme/regime (risk-on/risk-off, sector rotation)
- Top 1-2 highest-impact events
## Market Impact Rankings
[Table format, sorted by Impact Score descending]
| Rank | Event | Date | Impact Score | Asset Classes Affected | Market Reaction |
|------|-------|------|--------------|------------------------|-----------------|
| 1 | [Event] | [Date] | [Score] | [Equities, Commodities, etc.] | [Brief reaction] |
| 2 | ... | ... | ... | ... | ... |
---
## Detailed Event Analysis
[For each event in rank order, provide comprehensive analysis]
### [Rank]. [Event Name] (Impact Score: [X])
**Event Date:** [Date, Time]
**Event Type:** [Monetary Policy / Earnings / Geopolitical / Economic Data / Corporate]
**News Source:** [Source, with credibility tier]
#### Event Summary
[3-4 sentences describing what happened]
- Key details (e.g., rate decision, earnings beat/miss magnitude, conflict developments)
- Context (was this expected, surprise factor)
- Forward guidance or implications stated
#### Market Reaction
**Immediate (Day-of):**
- **Equities:** S&P 500 [+/-X%], Nasdaq [+/-X%], Sector rotation [details]
- **Bonds:** 10Y yield [change], credit spreads [movement]
- **Commodities:** Oil [+/-X%], Gold [+/-X%], Copper [+/-X%] (if relevant)
- **Currencies:** USD [+/-X%], [other relevant pairs]
- **Volatility:** VIX [level/change]
**Follow-Through (Subsequent Sessions):**
- [Direction: sustained, reversed, or consolidated]
- [Additional price action details if significant]
**Pattern Comparison:**
- **Expected Reaction:** [Based on historical patterns from knowledge base]
- **Actual vs Expected:** [Consistent / Amplified / Dampened / Inverse]
- **Explanation of Deviation:** [If applicable, why reaction differed]
#### Impact Assessment Detail
**Asset Price Impact:** [Severe/Major/Moderate/Minor] - [Justification]
**Breadth:** [Systemic/Cross-Asset/Sector/Stock-Specific] - [Affected markets]
**Forward Significance:** [Regime Change/Trend Confirmation/Isolated/Contrary] - [Rationale]
**Calculated Score:** ([Price Score] × [Breadth Multiplier]) × [Forward Modifier] = [Total]
#### Sector-Specific Impacts
[If relevant, detail which sectors/industries were most affected]
- [Sector 1]: [Impact and reason]
- [Sector 2]: [Impact and reason]
- [Example: Technology -3% (rate sensitivity), Energy +5% (oil price spillover)]
#### Geopolitical-Commodity Correlation Analysis
[Include this section only for geopolitical events]
- [Specific commodity affected]: [Price movement]
- [Supply/demand mechanism]: [Explanation]
- [Historical precedent]: [Comparison to similar past events]
- [Expected duration]: [Temporary shock vs sustained impact]
[Repeat detailed analysis for each ranked event]
---
## Thematic Synthesis
### Dominant Market Narrative
[Identify overarching theme across the 10-day period]
- [E.g., "Persistent inflation concerns dominated despite mixed economic data"]
- [E.g., "Tech sector strength drove markets higher despite geopolitical headwinds"]
### Interconnected Events
[Analyze how events related or compounded]
- [Event A] + [Event B] → [Combined impact analysis]
- [Sequential causation if applicable]
### Market Regime Assessment
**Risk Appetite:** [Risk-On / Risk-Off / Mixed]
**Evidence:**
- [Supporting indicators: sector performance, safe haven flows, credit spreads, VIX]
**Sector Rotation Trends:**
- [Growth vs Value]
- [Cyclicals vs Defensives]
- [Outperformers and underperformers]
### Anomalies and Surprises
[Highlight unexpected market reactions]
1. [Event]: Market reacted [unexpectedly] because [explanation]
2. [Continue for significant anomalies]
---
## Commodity Market Deep Dive
[Dedicated section for commodity movements]
### Energy
- **Crude Oil (WTI/Brent):** [Price level, % change over period, key drivers]
- **Natural Gas:** [If significant movement]
- **Key Events:** [Specific news impacting energy: OPEC, geopolitics, inventory data]
### Precious Metals
- **Gold:** [Price level, % change, safe-haven flows vs real rate dynamics]
- **Silver:** [If significant divergence from gold]
- **Drivers:** [Geopolitical risk premium, inflation hedging, USD strength]
### Base Metals
- **Copper:** [As economic barometer - demand signals]
- **Aluminum, Nickel:** [If relevant supply/demand news]
- **China Factor:** [Impact of Chinese economic data/policy]
### Agricultural (If Relevant)
- **Grains:** [Wheat, Corn, Soybeans - weather, Ukraine conflict impacts]
[For each commodity, reference geopolitical events from main analysis and draw correlations]
---
## Forward-Looking Implications
### Market Positioning Insights
[What the news suggests for current market positioning]
- [Trend continuation or reversal signals]
- [Overvaluation or undervaluation indications]
- [Sentiment extremes (complacency or panic)]
### Upcoming Catalysts
[Events on horizon that may be set up by recent news]
- [Next FOMC meeting expectations post-recent decision]
- [Upcoming earnings seasons based on guidance]
- [Geopolitical developments to monitor]
### Risk Scenarios
[Based on recent news, identify key risks]
1. **[Risk Name]:** [Description, probability, potential impact]
2. **[Risk Name]:** [Description, probability, potential impact]
3. [Continue for 3-5 key risks]
---
## Data Sources and Methodology
### News Sources Consulted
[List primary sources used, organized by tier]
- **Official Sources:** [e.g., FederalReserve.gov, SEC.gov]
- **Tier 1 Financial News:** [e.g., Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ]
- **Specialized:** [e.g., S&P Global Platts for commodities]
### Analysis Period
- **Start Date:** [Specific date]
- **End Date:** [Specific date]
- **Total Days:** 10
### Market Data
- Equity indices: [Data sources]
- Commodity prices: [Data sources]
- Economic data: [Government sources]
### Knowledge Base References
- `market_event_patterns.md` - Historical reaction patterns
- `geopolitical_commodity_correlations.md` - Geopolitical-commodity frameworks
- `corporate_news_impact.md` - Mega-cap impact analysis
- `trusted_news_sources.md` - Source credibility assessment
---
*Analysis Date: [Date report generated]*
*Language: English*
*Analysis Thinking: English*
File Naming Convention:
market_news_analysis_[START_DATE]_to_[END_DATE].md
Example: market_news_analysis_2024-10-25_to_2024-11-03.md
Report Quality Standards:
When conducting market news analysis:
Over-Attribution:
Recency Bias:
Hindsight Bias:
Single-Factor Analysis:
Ignoring Magnitude:
market_event_patterns.md - Comprehensive knowledge base covering:
geopolitical_commodity_correlations.md - Detailed correlations covering:
corporate_news_impact.md - Mega-cap analysis framework:
trusted_news_sources.md - Source credibility guide:
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