Run structured What-If scenario analysis with 4–6 branch possibility exploration (best, likely, worst, wild card, contrarian, second-order). Use when the user asks speculative what-if questions about uncertain futures, strategic forks, contingency planning, or stress-testing a decision before committing.
Permissions
Just instructions. No commands, network, or file access.
Files
SKILL.md
what-if-oracle
Run structured What-If scenario analysis with 4–6 branch possibility exploration (best, likely, worst, wild card, contrarian, second-order). Use when the user asks speculative what-if questions about uncertain futures, strategic forks, contingency planning, or stress-testing a decision before committing.
A structured system for exploring uncertain futures through rigorous multi-branch scenario analysis. Instead of one prediction, the Oracle maps the full possibility space — branching timelines where each path has its own logic, probability, and consequences.
Based on the What-If Paradigm: the idea that speculative questions ("What if X?") are not idle daydreaming but a fundamental computing operation — the mind's way of simulating futures before committing resources to one.
0 — The unexpressed state (what hasn't happened yet, the potential)
1 — The expressed state (what IS, the current reality)
IF — The conditional bond (the decision, event, or change that transforms 0 into 1)
The quality of the analysis depends on the precision of the IF. A vague "what if things go wrong?" produces vague results. A precise "what if our primary supplier raises prices 30% in Q3?" produces actionable intelligence.
How to Run the Oracle
Phase 1 — Frame the Question
Take the user's What-If question and sharpen it:
Decompose into components:
The Variable: What specific thing changes? (one variable per analysis)
The Magnitude: By how much? (quantify if possible)
The Timeframe: Over what period?
The Context: What's the current state before the change?
If the question is vague, sharpen it:
"What if AI takes over?" → "What if 40% of current knowledge-work tasks are automated by AI within 3 years in [specific industry]?"
"What if we fail?" → "What if monthly revenue stays below $5K for 6 consecutive months starting now?"
Present the sharpened question to the user for confirmation before proceeding.
Phase 2 — Map the Possibility Space
Generate 4-6 scenario branches using this framework:
Branch
Definition
Purpose
Ω Best Case
Everything goes right. Key assumptions all validate. Lucky breaks occur.
Define the ceiling — what's the maximum upside?
α Likely Case
Most probable path given current evidence. No major surprises.
Anchor expectations in reality
Δ Worst Case
Key assumptions fail. Two things go wrong simultaneously.
Define the floor — what's the maximum downside?
Ψ Wild Card
An unexpected variable enters that nobody is tracking. Black swan territory.
Stress-test for the unimaginable
Φ Contrarian
The opposite of the consensus view turns out to be true.
Challenge groupthink and reveal hidden assumptions
∞ Second Order
The first-order effects trigger cascading consequences nobody predicted.
Map the ripple effects
Phase 3 — Analyze Each Branch
For each scenario branch, provide:
╔══════════════════════════════════════════════╗
║ BRANCH: [Ω/α/Δ/Ψ/Φ/∞] — [Branch Name] ║
╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
║ Probability: [X%] ║
║ Timeframe: [When this could materialize] ║
║ Confidence: [HIGH/MEDIUM/LOW] ║
╠══════════════════════════════════════════════╣
║ NARRATIVE: ║
║ [2-3 sentences describing how this ║
║ scenario unfolds step by step] ║
║ ║
║ KEY ASSUMPTIONS: ║
║ • [What must be true for this to happen] ║
║ • [And this] ║
║ ║
║ TRIGGER CONDITIONS: ║
║ • [Early signal that this branch is ║
║ becoming reality] ║
║ • [Second signal] ║
║ ║
║ CONSEQUENCES: ║
║ → Immediate: [What happens first] ║
║ → 30 days: [What follows] ║
║ → 6 months: [Where it leads] ║
║ ║
║ REQUIRED RESPONSE: ║
║ [What action to take if this branch ║
║ activates — specific, actionable] ║
║ ║
║ WHAT MOST PEOPLE MISS: ║
║ [The non-obvious insight about this ║
║ scenario that conventional analysis ║
║ would overlook] ║
╚══════════════════════════════════════════════╝
Phase 4 — Synthesis
After analyzing all branches, provide:
Probability Distribution:
Ω Best Case ····· [██████░░░░] 15%
α Likely Case ··· [████████░░] 45%
Δ Worst Case ···· [██████░░░░] 20%
Ψ Wild Card ····· [███░░░░░░░] 8%
Φ Contrarian ···· [████░░░░░░] 7%
∞ Second Order ·· [███░░░░░░░] 5%
Robust Actions: What actions are beneficial across MULTIPLE branches? These are the no-regret moves — do them regardless of which future materializes.
Hedge Actions: What preparations protect against the worst branches without sacrificing upside?
Decision Triggers: What specific, observable signals should cause you to update which branch is most likely? Define the tripwires.
The 1% Insight: What is the one thing about this situation that almost everyone analyzing it would miss? The non-obvious pattern, the hidden assumption, the overlooked variable.
Golden Ratio Weighting
When evidence exists, weight primary scenarios using the golden ratio:
Primary future (most likely): 61.8% of attention/resources
Alternative future: 38.2% of attention/resources
This prevents both overcommitment to a single path and dilution across too many contingencies. Nature uses this ratio for branching (trees, rivers, blood vessels). Strategic planning can too.
Modes
Quick Oracle (2-3 minutes)
3 branches only: Best, Likely, Worst. Short narratives. For fast decisions.
Deep Oracle (5-10 minutes)
All 6 branches. Full analysis with consequences, triggers, and synthesis. For high-stakes decisions.
Scenario Chain
Take the output of one Oracle analysis and feed it into another. "If Branch Δ happens, what are the possibilities WITHIN that branch?" Recursive depth for complex strategic planning.
Reverse Oracle
Start from a desired outcome and work backward: "What conditions must be true for X to happen? What's the most likely path TO that outcome?" Useful for goal-setting and strategy design.
Competitive Oracle
Analyze the same What-If from multiple stakeholder perspectives: "If we launch this product, what does the possibility space look like from OUR perspective vs. THEIR perspective vs. THE MARKET's perspective?"
What This Is NOT
Not a prediction — it's a possibility map. The Oracle doesn't claim to know the future; it helps you prepare for multiple futures.
Not a crystal ball — probabilities are estimates based on available evidence, not certainties.
Not a substitute for action — the best scenario analysis in the world is worthless without subsequent decision and execution.
Reference Files
File
Purpose
references/scenario-templates.md
Domain-specific templates (startup, tech, finance, crisis, etc.) and probability calibration
